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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers improving together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still