Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
